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Online forex trading investors will no doubt have been relieved by the stock market’s positive start to 2013 but now fears of a triple-dip recession in the UK could risk reversing the gains made and force the market back into a nose dive.

On the back of recent uncertainty in the Eurozone caused by the Cyprus bailout and growing fears of economic catastrophe in Slovenia, the UK’s continual teetering on the brink of recession is causing concern among traders and recent gains on the stock market have already begun to fall away.
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On the online forex trading front for this week, a few key movements are taking pace in Europe that have drawn considerably interest from currency traders.

One movement that has gained considerable attention is the fact that the Swiss deflation rate fell to a profound eight month ow in March. This has mainly been caused by the price of consumer goods falling; induced largely by the flow of liquidity from traders looking to hedge themselves against a weakening Euro. In turn, this has obviously strengthened in the CHF.
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As Cyprus finally manages to come to an agreement with international lenders over a 10 billion euro bailout, the Euro has seen some positive movement in response. Finally pulling away from its four month low, this morning the central European currency achieved an online trading value of $1.3040, an improvement which has been desperately sought by Forex traders across the world.

Short term fluctuation

However, though euro zone finance ministers were quick to endorse an agreement which should stop Cyprus facing total financial ruin, many investors are not seeing this positive step in Euro value as anything other than a short term fluctuation. (more…)

The most prominent online trading news for this week is the unfolding situation in Cyprus. We have seen the Euro lose more value as the EU continues to pressure Cyprus to come to a consensus regarding the 5.8 billion Euros needed to save the ailing country from a disorderly default and a messy exit from the European Union.

Although this 5.8 billion was initially to come from the mandatory levy on all citizens’ bank holdings, severe protests and mass withdrawals of capital have made this move, at least as it currently stands, all but impossible.
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The pound seems to be on a free-fall, having fallen by more than 7 per cent against the dollar, in the last two months.

Yesterday, the pound fell by about two cents in forex trading, or 100 points, to touch $1.4993, before rebounding to $1.5019, in later trade.

This is the first instance, in two and a half years, of the sterling trading below the symbolic $1.50 mark.
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It seems that many investors feel that the euro has turned a rather pivotal corner during this past week. The multinational currency finished off the week of the 21st at a ten month high in relation to the dollar.

This has been interpreted by many as a sign of a heightened sense of confidence in the European banking sector.

There are even rumours that we may see the euro currency test the 2012 resistance levels of $1.35 in the short-term. Nonetheless, the week ahead is of critical importance for the perceived strength of the euro.
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It seems that the new year has once again brought the bears out in regards to the latest online forex trading sentiment. The Euro has lost any previous gains made against the dollar due to a larger fall in European Union industrial output than previously predicted.

This statistical pullback is highlighted by the continued record-high unemployment in countries such as Spain and Greece. Although unemployment remains one of the most bearish economic barometers for the Euro, weak private sector output serves to further illustrate the fragile state of this multinational economy.
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Online Forex Trading investors will be buoyed by news that global markets have responded positively to the US fiscal agreement on the first trading day of 2013, as a last minute deal was struck by Congress to avert the so-called ‘fiscal cliff’.

In London the FTSE 100 surged beyond the 6000 level for the first time in over seventeen months with banks making some of the biggest gains, after similar improvements in the Asian markets earlier, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng increasing by 2.9% to its highest level since June 2011.

Both the DAX and the CAC 40 also rallied positively to the news of the US deal. The Dow Jones was up by just over 2% at 10:15 EST.
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This week’s online Forex trading news has been highlighted primarily by the fiscal conditions currently underpinning the Eurozone, with a moderate consideration regarding investors’ stances on the US dollar.

While the primary concern is the United States government’s approach to the looming deficit cliff, the Federal Reserve seems to have made progress towards the latter part of the week which will help bridge the gap between the democrats and republicans. However, in Europe near term worries continue to daunt any real gains in the value of the Euro.
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The Australian Dollar enjoyed an increase overnight as manufacturing industries in China acquired even more of Australia’s surplus requirements.

The PMI figure of 50.4 – welcomely higher than the optimum 50.0 required for growth – indicates that the Australian Dollar’s growth looks set to continue, at least for the time being as China turns to Australasia as a realistic solution for its exponential construction requirements.

Online Forex traders should take heed, however. Current forecasts may hint at a continued positive trend, but as yet it is too early to glean a long-term increase.
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One cause of uncertainty hanging over the Forex markets has finally been resolved in the last few hours. The US electorate have now decided who will be in charge of the world’s largest economy for the next four years.

The dollar was gaining ground against the Euro and Sterling in the run up to polling, but saw a small retrace this morning on market expectations of further rounds of quantitative easing.

US businesses and investors are turning their attention more towards the looming ‘fiscal cliff’ and its potential impact on federal deficits and debt. The major credit ratings agencies are maintaining a negative outlook on US debt due to this, with the dollar’s ‘reserve currency’ status being one of the few planks still supporting its elevated rating. If no settlement is forthcoming, the US economy could be shocked into further recession, putting more pressure on the dollar.
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The big story hanging over Forex traders and anyone else with an interest in the economic future should see its final resolution in the coming few hours. Who will be in charge of the world’s largest economy?

The markets wait with baited breath for the decision of the US electorate, and the impact on the US dollar is opaque, although it did gain ground against the Euro and Sterling in the run up to polling day.
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All eyes will be on the Eurozone this week as a welter of news upturns expectations in the run up to Thursday’s EU Summit in Brussels. Spain in particular is breathing a little easier today, following Moody’s decision not to downgrade its credit rating to ‘junk’ status.

The country’s debt remains in the investment grade, though by the slimmest of margins. Moody’s reaffirmed their Baa3 rating with a negative outlook, citing progress on economic reforms and bank restructuring domestically, and continued ECB bond-buying for the Euro periphery.
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The Spanish Government is facing hard decisions in light of today’s action by credit agency Standard & Poor to cut the country’s rating. As the Spanish crisis deepens online forex traders need to evaluate Spain’s future in the Euro Zone.

For Spain’s politicians the hardest question is whether to ask for financial assistance to lower its borrowing costs. Applying for sovereign aid is perceived as an act of financial desperation and in recent months the Spanish Government has been keen to refute rumours that it was seeking such support. However in its report S&P linked the Spanish government’s unwillingness to seek aid with its decision to cut the country’s rating.
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As Greece slips into an ever deepening recession with unrest and protests reported across the country, the fate of the Europ hangs by a thread. With increasing risk of a Greek default, the Euro may slip against the dollar from its current high of 1.298/dollar.

Euro against dollar

After a brief rally that surged the Euro to 1.298 against the dollar, the looming threat of an European recession spurred by failing austerity measures in Greece and Spain has once again triggered a downward spiral of the Euro against the dollar. The coming few weeks will be crucial for forex traders are (more…)

Euro News – Greek Bailout Unlikely as Country’s Deepening Financial Crises Continues

As Greece continues to fail in securing its next ECB bailout, the country’s financial crises only looks set to deepen.

The Euro, which has pared the overnight advance to 1.3046, is likely to face even more near-term headwinds in light of the continuing Greek financial crises. The ECB, European Union and the IMF (Troika), will re-assess Greece’s financial commitments in a week’s time, within which the 11.6B austerity programme – which many feel will not be enough -will remain under review. On the other hand, recent news that Greece may plan on introducing additional taxes is thought could raise an additional 2B in EUR.

Online forex traders will want to take note that President Axel Weber, former president of Bundesbank, has expressed concerns that the ECB may only simply be (more…)

Euro rises to a 4-month high against the Dollar as the German Constitutional Court Approves of a multi-billion Euro Rescue Plan

The German constitutional court on 12 September, 2012 approved of the German government’s participation in the Euro zone’s latest rescue plan, pushing the Euro to a 4-month high against the dollar and other currencies. The Court allowed the government to contribute as much as €190 billion Euro to the rescue plan without having to take permission from the German parliament. These terms buoyed the sentiments in the forex market, which was expecting tougher terms from the Court.

German court verdict supporting EURO raise

Within hours of the Courts verdict, the Euro rose 0.35% against the US dollar to close at 1.2899. It continued to rise on 13th September, when it closed at 1.2985. (more…)

The Euro weakened on Tuesday, falling 0.2% against the dollar from the two month high it reached on 31st August, which had seen some investors optimistically forecasting that the currency was rallying.

This came after the European Central Bank (ECB) stated that they will be prepared to buy bonds with maturities of up to 3 years. Despite investors welcoming this news, the fall reflects their fears that it may not be enough to contain the European debt crisis.
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In the latest forex news, the US dollar has slid considerably in comparison to other major currencies.

While earlier this month many forecasts were bullish regarding the dollar’s upward trend, analysts have now scaled off this position and are taking a more contemplative approach.

Indeed, the dollar may slide further as is possibly indicated by the relative strength index (RSI) which appears to be setting the stage for a downward trend in the weeks to come. This is especially relevant considering that the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium is on schedule for the following week.

Although the bearish stance for the dollar may continue temporarily, should chairman Bernanke not hint at another round of QE3, sentiments may begin to reverse.
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Morgan Stanley’s Martine Bond has left her position as Chief Operating Officer of Foreign Exchange and Emerging Markets in favour of a new, as yet unnamed, role within State Street Corporation.

It’s understood that she has been placed on ‘gardening leave’ from her position at Morgan Stanley with immediate effect. Ms Bond made the transition from JP Morgan to Morgan Stanley in 2009, originally working as Global Head of FX Prime Brokerage before being promoted to the COO role managing Forex in March of 2011.
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