Archive for the ‘Euro’ Category

It seems that the new year has once again brought the bears out in regards to the latest online forex trading sentiment. The Euro has lost any previous gains made against the dollar due to a larger fall in European Union industrial output than previously predicted.

This statistical pullback is highlighted by the continued record-high unemployment in countries such as Spain and Greece. Although unemployment remains one of the most bearish economic barometers for the Euro, weak private sector output serves to further illustrate the fragile state of this multinational economy.
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This week’s online Forex trading news has been highlighted primarily by the fiscal conditions currently underpinning the Eurozone, with a moderate consideration regarding investors’ stances on the US dollar.

While the primary concern is the United States government’s approach to the looming deficit cliff, the Federal Reserve seems to have made progress towards the latter part of the week which will help bridge the gap between the democrats and republicans. However, in Europe near term worries continue to daunt any real gains in the value of the Euro.
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One cause of uncertainty hanging over the Forex markets has finally been resolved in the last few hours. The US electorate have now decided who will be in charge of the world’s largest economy for the next four years.

The dollar was gaining ground against the Euro and Sterling in the run up to polling, but saw a small retrace this morning on market expectations of further rounds of quantitative easing.

US businesses and investors are turning their attention more towards the looming ‘fiscal cliff’ and its potential impact on federal deficits and debt. The major credit ratings agencies are maintaining a negative outlook on US debt due to this, with the dollar’s ‘reserve currency’ status being one of the few planks still supporting its elevated rating. If no settlement is forthcoming, the US economy could be shocked into further recession, putting more pressure on the dollar.
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All eyes will be on the Eurozone this week as a welter of news upturns expectations in the run up to Thursday’s EU Summit in Brussels. Spain in particular is breathing a little easier today, following Moody’s decision not to downgrade its credit rating to ‘junk’ status.

The country’s debt remains in the investment grade, though by the slimmest of margins. Moody’s reaffirmed their Baa3 rating with a negative outlook, citing progress on economic reforms and bank restructuring domestically, and continued ECB bond-buying for the Euro periphery.
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The Spanish Government is facing hard decisions in light of today’s action by credit agency Standard & Poor to cut the country’s rating. As the Spanish crisis deepens online forex traders need to evaluate Spain’s future in the Euro Zone.

For Spain’s politicians the hardest question is whether to ask for financial assistance to lower its borrowing costs. Applying for sovereign aid is perceived as an act of financial desperation and in recent months the Spanish Government has been keen to refute rumours that it was seeking such support. However in its report S&P linked the Spanish government’s unwillingness to seek aid with its decision to cut the country’s rating.
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As Greece slips into an ever deepening recession with unrest and protests reported across the country, the fate of the Europ hangs by a thread. With increasing risk of a Greek default, the Euro may slip against the dollar from its current high of 1.298/dollar.

Euro against dollar

After a brief rally that surged the Euro to 1.298 against the dollar, the looming threat of an European recession spurred by failing austerity measures in Greece and Spain has once again triggered a downward spiral of the Euro against the dollar. The coming few weeks will be crucial for forex traders are (more…)

Euro News – Greek Bailout Unlikely as Country’s Deepening Financial Crises Continues

As Greece continues to fail in securing its next ECB bailout, the country’s financial crises only looks set to deepen.

The Euro, which has pared the overnight advance to 1.3046, is likely to face even more near-term headwinds in light of the continuing Greek financial crises. The ECB, European Union and the IMF (Troika), will re-assess Greece’s financial commitments in a week’s time, within which the 11.6B austerity programme – which many feel will not be enough -will remain under review. On the other hand, recent news that Greece may plan on introducing additional taxes is thought could raise an additional 2B in EUR.

Online forex traders will want to take note that President Axel Weber, former president of Bundesbank, has expressed concerns that the ECB may only simply be (more…)

Euro rises to a 4-month high against the Dollar as the German Constitutional Court Approves of a multi-billion Euro Rescue Plan

The German constitutional court on 12 September, 2012 approved of the German government’s participation in the Euro zone’s latest rescue plan, pushing the Euro to a 4-month high against the dollar and other currencies. The Court allowed the government to contribute as much as €190 billion Euro to the rescue plan without having to take permission from the German parliament. These terms buoyed the sentiments in the forex market, which was expecting tougher terms from the Court.

German court verdict supporting EURO raise

Within hours of the Courts verdict, the Euro rose 0.35% against the US dollar to close at 1.2899. It continued to rise on 13th September, when it closed at 1.2985. (more…)

The Euro weakened on Tuesday, falling 0.2% against the dollar from the two month high it reached on 31st August, which had seen some investors optimistically forecasting that the currency was rallying.

This came after the European Central Bank (ECB) stated that they will be prepared to buy bonds with maturities of up to 3 years. Despite investors welcoming this news, the fall reflects their fears that it may not be enough to contain the European debt crisis.
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In the latest forex news, the US dollar has slid considerably in comparison to other major currencies.

While earlier this month many forecasts were bullish regarding the dollar’s upward trend, analysts have now scaled off this position and are taking a more contemplative approach.

Indeed, the dollar may slide further as is possibly indicated by the relative strength index (RSI) which appears to be setting the stage for a downward trend in the weeks to come. This is especially relevant considering that the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium is on schedule for the following week.

Although the bearish stance for the dollar may continue temporarily, should chairman Bernanke not hint at another round of QE3, sentiments may begin to reverse.
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Hosting the 2012 Olympic Games cost the British government an estimated £9.3 billion. While this may seem like an exorbitant amount, history has shown that hosting the Olympics can not only be a matter of prestige for a city, but also stimulate local economies and boost tourism, thus providing long term economic benefits.

British Olympic medal’s impact on cash reserves

The 2012 London Olympics have provided much needed cash reserves to the beleaguered British economy, which announced earlier in July that GDP output fell by 0.7 percent in the second quarter of the year. The games have been very successful, thanks in part to the British team’s exceptional performance.
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Dominating Forex trading news is the Euro’s continued decline versus the dollar. The new low of 1.229 has hit many traders and this trend is predicted to continue for some time. The faltering of the Euro is seen to have been partially caused by fresh Greek unemployment figures, this data now showing that the number of jobless youths in Greece has hit a record high.
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The week ahead looks to highlight concerns underpinning the European sovereign debt situation. The main story still is that of volatility on the European market; the single currency’s future viability questioned by many traders worldwide.

Spain is becoming more and more of a concern

The concerns with Spain’s ability to manage a flailing economy have grown since the IMF rescue package was approved. Spanish yields have tipped well over seven percent, trading at 7.39% after hitting a European-era high of 7.56%. Attempting to mitigate further volatility, Spain has banned short selling for three months while Italy, feeling the effects as well has banned short selling financials for one week. There are now fears that Spain may indeed seek a full bailout, as regional governments have begun to express concern for their ability to manage internal debts. Spanish and Italian bank shares were the worst hit followed closely by their domestic indices; the Ibex at one point dropping nearly five percent.

Greece’s debt reduction

Furthermore, creditors are expected to begin auditing Greece’s progress on debt reduction. This audit determines whether the country is to be approved for an additional 31.5 billion euros. With political and social unease, a quickly shrinking economy and many investors questioning whether Greece will meet its August deadline, there has been speculation of true insolvency should their financial situation worsen.

EUR/USD at two-year low

Because of these protracted jitters, the euro has fallen to a two-year low against the US dollar to trade at $1.2082. Furthermore, it has fallen to an eleven-year low to the Japanese yen. Below $1.20, many online Forex traders have taken a bearish stance.

Euros long term survival

On the other hand, some Forex traders have taken the attitude that any position would have to be long due to such market volatility. This, of course, is under the assumption that the euro will remain in its current form. Indeed, the lack of real movement in the precious metals markets, traditional safe havens, illustrates that many believe the markets may incur still more losses in the near term. Nonetheless, taking a long position in the euro may indeed be one of the few hedges against what remains as the most volatile era for decades.

In recent Forex trading news, it is clear that all eyes continue to be on the economies of both Spain and Italy. Although the ECB’s intervention into the Spanish sovereign debt crisis initially raised investor sentiment, a subsequent backslide occurred, causing Spanish bond rates to hover near the dangerously high level of 7 percent. If we combine this factor with Spain’s request to be given more time to reach its deficit targets in exchange for further domestic austerity measures, (more…)

Disappointing Chinese trade data saw Asian stocks declining and the US Dollar and Japanese Yen gain ground as traders turned to these safe haven currencies. The Chinese report showed that imports grew by only 6.3 percent in June, compared to May’s figures of 12.7 percent and the 11 percent analysts had forecasted. This is disappointing and places a question mark on Asian growth as many of the economies in the area rely on China as their main source of demand.

Thus, overnight Forex tsraders saw the USD gain ground while the AUD (Australian Dollar) and NZD (New Zealand dollar) slipped. Clearly, many online traders opted to mitigate risk and buy up the greenback and Yen. (more…)

Recent Forex trading news highlights the continued fragile state of both the European and United States economies. Nonetheless, the US dollar varied in narrow ranges as liquidity tightens ahead of the July 4th bank holiday in America.

Eurozone PMI

Across the Atlantic in Europe, many online traders are eager to hear what the ECB and the Bank of England will state in their monthly policy announcements. Most traders foresee additional easing on (more…)

The German Unemployment Report is expected to support the bleak outlook for the Eurozone as unemployment in the area’s largest economy is forecasted to increase in June. Undoubtedly, the forecast for the Eurozone is not a rosy one, especially considering Greece is expecting a 9% contraction of their (more…)

This past week has seen a number of financially important events; from Greek election results to Spanish bonds surpassing all-time highs. Any signals of enthusiasm regarding Greece’s elections quickly faded and the overall value of the Euro has continued on a downward trend. The forex bears still seem firmly in place in both European and international market trading.

While the immediate threat of an imminent Greek default being averted initially caused a slight rally in European markets, a broader analysis revealed investors’ sentiment still remains shaky; (more…)

Greece’s recent general elections had much of the world holding their breaths as the fear that an anti-Eurozone party would come out victorious. The doomsday scenario many feared was that Greece would revert to the drachma and cancel its bailouts, leading to massive losses for the Eurozone as well as the potential for an even greater disaster, with Spain and Italy teetering on the edge. Fearing excessive volatility on the markets some online Forex trading brokers even shut down private trading on Sunday, the 17th of June.

While the “end of the Eurozone” scenario did not come to pass as the pro-Eurozone (more…)

Regardless of the outcome of today’s Greek elections, get ready for a hectic week in the marketplace!

With Greece holding elections today, we thought this may be a good time to let you know how this event may impact the marketplace when it reopens at 21:00 GMT tonight. Following the failure of Greek politicians to form a new government after the first round of elections in May, nervous investors sent riskier currencies and commodities plummeting. Now with new elections being held, the prospect for fresh market volatility is virtually guaranteed.

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